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Kazakhstani economy will recover but not now, according to experts

The experts shared with LS their opinion on when the economy of Kazakhstan will return to pre-pandemic level.
Kazakhstani economy will recover but not now, according to experts

According to some economists, economic recovery will start as early as next year.

“A full return to the pre-crisis level of 2019 is expected by around 2025–2026. Recovery will start next year,” said Timur Zharkenov, the Chairman of the Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs Iskermen.

He noted that management influences the financial standing of the state.

“There would be less damage to the economy if the approach to quarantine were sensible, if seating arrangements, occupancy and other measures were originally introduced. And if a health inspector suddenly decides to close a business, it will again incur large losses due to unavailability; all this reflects on the Kazakhstani economy. We need systemic measures,” Zharkenov said.

According to the head of department of applied research AERC Dias Kumarbekov, the sectors most affected by the pandemic are the first to recover in Kazakhstan, including entertainment and foodservice industry. The real sector of the economy, meanwhile, has already begun to grow after reduction in 2020 and depends on the demand by the countries - trading partners.

“A full economic recovery can be expected in early 2022. Although many experts have been counting on it in the second quarter of 2021, the new spread of coronavirus infection calls the rapid recovery into question,” Kumarbekov explained.

An economist Arman Baiganov noted that the speed of economic recovery depends on the immunization of the population. He also drew attention to the fact that last year Kazakhstan allocated around 6 trillion tenge (about 8% of GDP) for economic recovery.

“This is money that the state has lost due to the coronavirus. These were two years of development that were spent on the economy support. Hypothetically, the damage is even greater and can extend over several years of development,” Baiganov said.

Meanwhile, according to the economist, the country has already adapted and is gradually recovering. However, such sectors as services and trade will be directly dependent on vaccination of the population.


Photos are from open sources.

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