“The recovery of active dynamics of the segment will be facilitated by the preservation of low rates on deposits, an increase in the interest of citizens in various investment instruments, including, as a result of changes in the taxation of income from deposits from 2021, a decrease in the entry threshold and thus an increase in the availability of ILI and ULI policies for a wider range of clients,” the experts note.
According to the baseline scenario of Expert RA, the growth rate of life insurance premiums will be 20-25% in 2021 compared to 2020; the market will grow by 15-20% following the conservative scenario.
The analysts expect that after recovery in the 2nd HY, the dynamics of premiums for many other types of insurance will slow down in 2021.
According to the agency's basic forecast, the non-life market (types of insurance other than life insurance) will grow by 2-3%, the market as a whole (life and non-life) - by 7-9%. If the conservative scenario is implemented, non-life contributions will show a slight negative trend (from -1 to 0%), the market as a whole (life and non-life) will grow by 4-5%.
“We believe that the recovery in the insurance market dynamics will largely depend on how long it takes for business activity to return to pre-crisis level. The further development of the coronavirus situation and duration of the recession in the global economy remain uncertainty factors,” the experts point out.
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