“If mortality and birth rates remain at the level of 2021 and external and interregional migration remain at the average value for 2017-2021, the population of Kazakhstan will reach 20 million 958 thousand people by 2030, and 27 million 192 thousand people - by 2050,” informed Dmitry Shumekov, Director of the Forecasting Department of the Workforce Development Center.
He noted that the center predicts 27 main scenarios for each region depending on the chosen base year,
birth, death and migration rate. The mechanism that allows modeling the population size outside of
these basic indicators, for example, by increasing the birth rate or reducing the death rate by a certain
percentage, has been developed.
Thus, according to him, the population under the central scenario will grow most in the capital - by 420
thousand people, or by 33% to 1.7 million people, in Almaty - by 414 thousand people to 2 million 466
thousand people, in Shymkent - by 369 thousand people or by 32% to 1.5 million people by 2030.
The population in the Turkestan region will increase by 207 thousand people, Mangistau region - by 170
thousand, and the Almaty region - by 145 thousand. A decrease in population is expected in East
Kazakhstan, Kostanay, North Kazakhstan, Karaganda, Pavlodar and Akmola regions.
According to analytical calculations, Shymkent will become the leader in population growth, with 2.8
million people by 2050. The increase in population in the capital will be 1.6 million people. The number
of Almaty residents will grow to 3.5 million people. The population in the Mangistau region will grow by
820 thousand people to 1.5 million people.
“It is worth noting that our forecast and the new population forecast of the UN Department of Economic
and Social Affairs are similar, and, depending on the scenario, they assume population growth from 20.8
million to 21.5 million people by 2030, and from 23.5 million to 27.7 million - by 2050,” shared Dmitry
Shumekov.
Photos are from open sources.
