July inflation has slightly slowed for the third month in a row. Deseasonalized inflation has also declined. However, the inflation rate for 7 months of this year is significantly higher than the one for the same period last year - 4.4% versus 2.8%. This acceleration is mainly due to double-digit growth in food prices and higher tariffs for services, while prices for non-food products are showing a comparable growth rate as in the previous year. “Against the background of the economic crisis, the real wage growth in June has gone into a negative territory for the first time this year. We believe that the decline in real wages will continue in the second half of the year, which, together with a significant increase in hidden unemployment (self-employed, temporarily unemployed), will restrain pressure on inflation. We keep our inflation forecast for the end of this year at 7.3% yoy,” analysts at Halyk Finance wrote.
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