Halyk Finance expects that the tenge will be supported primarily by hydrocarbon prices during the year, the forecast of most analysts for which is $60 per barrel or more. This will lead to nominal growth in exports and a reduction in the current account deficit to $2.5 billion.
“In total, the size of the transfer to the budget will amount to 4.5 trillion tenge in 2021. Such an inflow of money will lead to expansion of the foreign currency supply in the domestic foreign exchange market and be slightly less than the last year volume of $9 billion. According to our estimates, the most of these funds or about $5.7 billion will enter the market in the second half of this year, namely in the fall, in order to smooth out the expected volatility of the exchange rate. Besides, the tenge will be supported by an inflow of foreign capital in the form of portfolio investments in government securities due to expansion of sanctions against Russia,” the analysts explained.
The tenge will strengthen technically due to the dollar weakening, which, against the backdrop of massive monetary aid to the US economy and growing inflation (2.6% in March), will drop below 90% this year. “The risks of a global economy’s long recovery from the coronavirus crisis remain and are being realized at the current moment. The incidence rate continues to grow not only in Kazakhstan, but throughout the world. Based on all these facts, we believe that the national currency rate will be formed in a narrow corridor of values of 430-435 tenge per $1, and for the RUB/KZT pair it will be in the range of 5.65-5.75 tenge per ruble,” they prognose in Halyk Finance.
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