The economists, scientists, representatives of development banks, commercial, financial institutions and brokerage companies took part in the study.
“The majority of the surveyed are inclined to believe that in the forecast period the tenge will continue to weaken against the dollar. They expect the dollar exchange rate in the range of 420-440 tenge in average, during the year. 61% of respondents predict that the maximum value of the American currency will be at the level of 440-450 tenge during the year. In the horizon of three and five years, the respondents became more optimistic, the median of the minimum values in five years decreased by 5%, the maximum - by 9%. It is noteworthy that range of values between the upper and lower limits in a three-year perspective has expanded in the IV quarter from 404.5 to 548 tenge per $1,” they noted in PwC Kazakhstan.
As for the ruble, the maximum strengthening of the tenge against this currency in one-year perspective is 5 tenge per ruble. The maximum expected depreciation of the tenge is expected at 7 tenge per ruble. The experts predict stronger positions of the tenge against the ruble.
“We must not forget that Russia, which has made 34% of all imports of Kazakhstan in the first nine months of 2020, remains one of the major trading partners of our country. In this regard, it can be expected that the medium-term equilibrium exchange rate for the RUB/KZT pair, which does not create macroeconomic imbalances, may be close to the current values,” said Olzhas Tuleuov, adviser to the executive of the National Bank.
The respondents also shared their views on the scenario for the recovery of the economy of Kazakhstan after COVID-19 and forecast on inflation rate. Thus, 72% of respondents expect a U-shaped recovery, 11% - L, 6% - W, and 11% - V-shaped. In the meantime, more than 44% of surveyed expect the maximum inflation rate to reach 7.7% in a year, 6.5% - in three years, and 6% - in five years.
If we consider the base rate, then in a three year perspective, with reducing inflationary risks, the experts expect it to reach 7.8% with an interest rate collar of +/- 1 pp. In five years it will reach its minimum level and be 6.9%.
Besides, the majority of respondents (94%) expect oil prices to be over $50 per barrel during the year.
Photos are from open sources.